The Media And The Economics Of Sport Sport Essay

The Media And The Economics Of Sport Sport Essay This essay analyses the relationship between sport and media and how they affect each other in the modern world. It uses some practical cases to demonstrate what sport brings to media when sport enters into the media field and what media brings to sport when media come into the sports sphere. In addition, there will be a comparison between sports and media in the West and in China. Background of sport and media Regarding the development of sport and media, Real (1998:14) stated that â€Å"the world of sports in the age of mass media has been transformed from nineteenth century amateur recreational participation to late twentieth and early twenty-first century spectator-centered technology and business†. In the past, sport was just defined as a competitive and organized physical activity. Moreover, most participants consisted of sports enthusiasts and their purpose was to gain more happiness from sport. However, after undergoing more than a century of reform and changes, the present concept of sport now refers to other industries, such as media, economics and culture. In these industries, sport and media have an obvious ‘marriage relationship in global sport. In terms of the media, it can be considered as a collective noun of diverse types of media (What is media, 2005). It contains many communicative paths in different fields, such as television, radio, newspaper and internet. Nevertheless, with the high speed of sport development and popularity, more and more people are beginning to focus on sport events and relevant sport industries. Due to the increasing number of spectators, media has become an indispensable pathway for the sports industry service whilst it is a good combination between media and sport. Actually, Schirato (2007:82) stated that â€Å"the 1936 Berlin Olympic Games presaged a development which is by now very familiar to us about the integration of sport into the field of the media†. Through the advocate of media, it promotes sports events throughout the world and possesses more kinds of new demographics. Modern sport and media developed into the global With more and more professional sport events and international level mega sport events held, the developing tendency of sport and media turns to globalization. One typical example is the modern Olympic Games; it attracts the attention of sports spectators worldwide because of the establishment of the Main Press Centre (MPC) and International Broadcasting Centre (IBC). Certainly, the game also can promote many modes of media transmission development, for instance newspaper sales, development of communication technology, increased radio, television ratings and advertising revenue (Schirato, 2007). Sports broadcasting is a necessary and essential element to stimulate the sport and media to come into a global period. Purchasing the TV rights is one of the best ways to expand global media coverage. It will give confidence and escalate the interest of sports events and sports clubs, meanwhile enhancing the price of sports events, sport merchandise sales, the benefits from advertisers and s port sponsor supporting. The final goal is to gain most money from these aspects. Ashutosh Srivastava (2007) as a CEO of Singapore-based MindShare Asia Pacific said that â€Å"there is no greater dramatic product like sports, it can have emotions running high and have people glued to the sporting action either on the field or on television sets†. Under the global economics environment, sport and media are also entering into the time of commoditization and commercialism. Some sports clubs have begun to operate a business management model; they consider their professional sportsmen as commodities which can be traded with other sports clubs thereby obtaining the profit from the transfer fee. David Beckham is one of the biggest deals, his transfer fee touched ï ¿ ¡24.5 million when he was sold from Manchester United to the Spanish giants Real Madrid (Beckham joins Real Madrid, 2003). Since the appearance of sports stars, some commercial businesses have developed, such as merchandising with reference to sports stars, souvenirs from the sports stars club and some business activities using sports stars as an ambassador. All of these are so significant that sports clubs can better hunt for and extend their fans bases worldwide meanwhile in order to maximize their revenue. The relationship of sport and media Currently, sport and media can be called a perfect combination in todays society. They have gone beyond simple reporting relationship between sport and media, and have formed a mutual promotion and common development of the situation. Sports and media now belong to a sunrise industry now. In the context of industrial cooperation this is inevitable and the outlook will be very good. The relationship between sports and the media can be said to be long. When the ancient Greeks Feilibisi experienced a long run from the town of Marathon to Athens and declared a message of peace, it means sports and information dissemination had been linked inextricably. Furthermore, reporting entered the media stage, sports news was one of the main contents of the media. As early as 100 years ago, the United States sports journalist Pulitzer took the media to attract audience contact as one of the three magic weapons; the other two were scandal and sin (Wang, 2003). At the present day, his insight is even more confirmed. Not to mention the constant bombardment of sports coverage. Light from the endless landscape of sports newspapers and unlimited professional sports channels can be seen. Sport as one of the most common activities for entertainment, certainly can attract much attention, so the increasing popularity of the sports media is also a matter of course. However, the media wh ich focuses greatly on sport, not only depends on this basic reason, but is also relevant with its own characteristics of sports reporting. The first feature is sports reporting, sports news with fun, emotion and entertainment, as well as sports which are inseparable from its characteristics. On â€Å"Sports†, the dictionary has this explanation: An entertainment activity which requires physical strength, wisdom and skill of the game or sports, it requires physical strength more or less, according to the traditional form or set of rules, and sometimes as a career in outdoor or indoor. Sport, in itself (especially competitive sports), is a colorful process. Often, it makes the results unpredictable and fun. Therefore, spectators can watch sports away from the pressure of life experiencing physical and mental pleasure. Thus sport has become an indispensable part of peoples life. This reason is the most fundamental reason that people are fond of sports news, while also it is a fundamental characteristic of sports news. Second, the coverage of the sports audience is extensive, which is unmatched by other news reports. Once addicted to sport, regardless of ethnicity, national boundaries, gender or age, this hobby can accompany people throughout their whole life. Again, the content and style of sports coverage are free. One side is recreational sports coverage, it making far away from sensitive areas such as political ideology, so it has full coverage of space and the path of reporting. On the other side, sport is a common language around the world, just because of this commonality, so that peoples concern is not only limited to their domestic sports, but also throughout the world. For example, the soccers English Premier League, the NBA basketball and so on. This phenomenon which has now appeared in China is evident now, especially, sports reports. Concerning foreign competition, which outnumber domestic reports. Finally, the modern media technology creates more sports reports, it includes a very strong sense of involvement, an sense of audience and provide a better reason for sports people to choose sport reports. Sports appreciation, audience participation and experience are the most common states of mind. With the increasingly sophisticated number of communication in the modern media, such as newspapers, magazines, text and pictures, television and radio live broadcast, these pathways enable the viewer experience without leaving home to enjoy the same scene of the warm atmosphere and the real picture or sound. Moreover, television has slow motion function; allowing viewers to appreciate details of the real world. Spectators can even be involved in the games directly through technological methods are participated in the quiz. Generally speaking, all these reasons mean that regardless of the audience of sports report, the sport content, or the sport environment and other news reports, sport reports have their unique advantages in comparison with other reports, hence the prosperity of sports reports can be said to be inevitable. The relationship between sports media and sports is also logical and close. However, in recent years, we can easily find the relationship between sports and media is changing, not just reporting and being reported this simple rule. Media began to hold sport events, Bailey and Johnson, the world-renowned flying trapeze war is a typical example, actually it was held by television station; Another instance, in China the New Peoples Daily sponsored an event named Tianyuan cup go game in a recent decade and has a great influence; In the western countries, the media magnate Rupert Murdochs Sky TV control the broadcast of English Premier League. The European Super League Group raised by th e partners, media, and many famous football clubs in Europe are behind the network as a support, such as AC Milan support by Fininvest networks and Berlusconis media company, the Paris Saint Germain Club support by French cable television network and GANAN. To the extent of infiltration, media and Sport has been linked inextricably with each other. Win-win situation in the sport and media industry In Western countries, the sports industry originated in very early time when it experienced several years development. The sports industry has become huge. The management of sport market is increasingly mature and the sports industry in many countries has become a pillar industry for their national economy. In U.S, the sports industry is one of the most developed industries. In 1999, the sports industry output value over the petrochemical, automotive and aerospace, primary metal and wood processing industry and other important industrial sectors current output in the same year. It ranks 11th in the national economy compared with other various sectors (Cheng, 2000); In Italy, â€Å"football industry† is the main body in the sports industry. It has belonged to the list of 10 national pillar industries in the late 80s; in the twentieth century, the United Kingdom Sports industry output value reached 70 billion pounds, also exceeded their output value of automotive industry and th e tobacco industry. The government obtained revenue more than 2.4 billion pounds from the sports industry, it equivalent to the government appropriation funds five times. In 2001, the global sports industry output value has reached an amazing number was 400 billion U.S. dollars. In sports as an industry, there is no doubt that profit is the first thing. To get more economic benefits, sports have to attract more viewers. Similarly, for the purpose of cost-effectiveness of the media, the news reports can be considered as an intermediate of their business products. As a matter of fact, this media product management will assemble the audience and their own pages or hours to sell them to advertisers, thereby, obtain more benefits from the revenue. In here, this sale is called the audiences attention resources. The industrialization of sports and media, they has been put together by attention economy, to coexist and prosper simultaneously. Sport is deemed as the most important source for the media, also it can be said that media create the public market and the market returns are very essential support for the sport. On the other hand, sport requires accumulating popularity in itself, requiring to bonding degree, whilst it needs to own one professional skills and capabilities of specialized industry. In addition, it permits to have impact on the media industry. Consequently, the cooperation between the media industry and the sports industry is a natural, logical, win-win cooperation perfect combination. This kind of â€Å"attention economy† discards the previous simple relationship between reporting and being reported, close cooperation and common development in sport and the media (Yu, 2002). In recent years, it can be said that western countries sports industry development nearly from the outset has branded a deep mark on the media. If develop one sport as an industry to, the first problem is the available development money. While, the media for the sports industry development contribution was stemmed from the Switzerland World Cup in 1954. The 1954World Cup in Switzerland created the first time television broadcasting for the World Cup football game. In view of the value of football, the game attracts some multinational companies participation, such as Coca-Cola and Kodak. It stimulated this sportfootball and the football in the media development towards turn to prosperity. After this sport and media cooperation, The International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) has gained the current 200 counties members from the original six member countries, meanwhile FIFA also is the largest international federation. In the early 1980s, the organization of America National Basketball Association (NBA) still was a heavily indebted organization and nearly closed down. But when Stern took office, he convened a group of experts in the field of law and television; meanwhile he set up the television and media communications department. This step made NBA enter a successful and new era. In the end of 1980s, the NBA TV sales have been accounted for more than 55% of total revenue. In addition, with each new contract signed with NBA, their revenue could increase more than 50%. On March 11th 2004, American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), ESPN Sports Television Network, America Online and Time Warner announced that they have jointly bought the television rights of America Basketball League (NBA) in next four years. This total contract value reached 2.64 billion U.S. dollars and it created a new record of NBA television broadcast fees. The Montreal Olympic Games in 1976 and the Moscow Olympic Games in 1980 all lost every cent invested; therefore it was announced that the model of government funding to host the Olympic Games would stop. Up to 1984, Los Angeles was the only bid city to host the Olympic Games. The American businessman Ueberroth did not apply money from the government. He just relied on 700 million U.S. dollars from raise financing. For this reason, the Los Angeles Olympic Games could be considered as single-handedly organized. More importantly, this game made 215 million U.S. dollars net profit in the end (Kotler, 1993). This kind of mode from individual person to sponsors of the Olympic Game was called â€Å"Uederroth mode†in the further years. In this mode, the Olympic television broadcast rights had the most opportunities to gain profit from it. According to China Daily, one popular foreign newspaper in China, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced the National Broadcasting Comp any (NBC) spent 22 billion U.S. dollars to win the TV rights for the 2010 Winter Olympic Games and 2012 Summer Olympic Game in the United States on June 6th in 2003. In 1995, the NBC spent 15 billion U.S. dollars to bid the television broadcast rights for 2006 Turin Winter Olympic Games in Italy and 2008 Beijing Summer Olympic Games. The Moscow Olympics hold in 1980, the TV revenue was 87.9841 million U.S. dollars. The TV rights sales, TV advertising auction, and the income of commercial sponsorship all of these were take up more than 90 percent of the Olympic Game (Kotler, 1993). The common development space of sport and the media With the progress of social civilization, sport has become an essential part of modern life. The relationships of media and sport have been reached an unprecedented level. Especially in the field of television, due to commercial packaging, it enhances the sports games entertainment and extends the range of sports audience that attracts more people who rarely or never participate in sports. Under this background, the sport governing bodies have to upgrade the issue of TV broadcasting to a high degree of strategic development of sports. Accordingly, the sports media are developing continuously. In U.S, there are more than 1500 TV stations, nearly 12,000 local radio sports programs by broadcast, and the sports programming audience who watching 179 hours in average in a year. Focus on print media, according to the data of SRDS market research firm, in 1996 the United States more than 1,500 daily and 7,500 weekly newspapers, majority of its have their sports pages. In addition, there have 19% of the total number of news journalists for sports report. Particularly, the three major U.S. television networks: American Broadcasting Company (ABC), Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) and National Broadcasting Company (NBC) for the competition, including the Olympic Games broadcast rights and other attention-grabbing battle, at the same time some rising stars such as the Fox Broadcasting Company (FOX), United Paramount Network (UPN), Warner Brothers network (WB) and ESPN sports channel involved. In 1995, only three European bro adcast sports television network now has more than 20 sports channels, they kept broadcast the live of sports programmed and sports video to 150 million cable channels and satellite households (Samuelson, 1992). Conclusion Regardless of the media industry or sports industry, its development are still just beginning, its potential of development and profit margins are enormous. Because of these, it attracts more eyes from investors to invest the sport and the media industry in the future. In China, the most obvious example is the Chinese Football League. In 2003, China Football League title sponsorship fee was touched 140 million yuan (Jinghua Newspaper, 2003). Moreover, more and more domestic enterprises have invested in football and the amount of annual money increasingly. Shide is one famous Group in China, its investment in football more than 100 million in each year. Meanwhile, Chinas basketball, volleyball, table tennis, chess and other sport events are also have been launched the operation of commercial club system, this point attracting more investments. Therefore, both domestic and foreign researchers have described these two industries perfect combination is a sunrise industry, and they confirmed that this industry will have a prospect development in the future. The sports and media are all built on the attention economy and are called sunrise industry. Not only they have common platform for cooperation, but also they own the same market for future development. As a result, whatever in terms of capital investment or consider its own development, it can described as a marriage made in heaven. Especially Chinas successful bid to host the 2008 Olympic Games; it is a great opportunity to accelerate the development of the whole Chinese sports media and sports industry. References: Adrews, P. (2005). Sports journalism: a practical guide. London, SAGE Publications. Hundley, H and Billings, A. (2010). Examining Identity in Sports Media. Los Angeles, SAGE Publications. Kotler, P. (1993). Marketing Management: Analysis, planning, implementation and control. 6th ed., New York, Science Press. Lu,Y.Z. (2000). Sports Sociology in China. Beijing, Beijing Sport University Press. Real, M. (1998). Media Sport: technology and the commodification of postmodern sport, in L.Wenner (ed.) Media Sport. London, Routledge. Rowe, D.C. (1999). Sport, Culture and the Media. 2th ed., London, Open University Press. Samuelson, P. (1992). Economics. 12th ed., New York, China Development Press. Schirato, T. (2007). Understanding Sports Culture. London, SAGE Publications. Schultz, B. (2002). Sports Broadcasting. Boston, Focal Press. Chen, S.T. (2000). Exploration of the American sports industry. International Advertising, No.11 edition, 2000. Jinghua Newspaper, (2003). A league won 140 million naming rights. Jinghua Newspaper, March 7th. Yu, G.M. (2002). The reality of the Chinese sports media development and future trends. Beijing World Sports Forum, May 24th, 2002. Agencies. (2007). [online]. Last accessed 19 April 2010 at: www.tsinghua.edu.cn/docsn/cbx/cft/xinxi/xinxi-shalong-wu.htm Beckham joins Real Madrid. (2003). [online]. Last accessed 19 April 2010 at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/front_page/2998868.stm Wang, Y.Q. (2003). [online]. Last accessed 19 April 2010 at: www.tsinghua.edu.cn/docsn/cbx/cft/xinxi/xinxi-shalong-wu.htm

Forecasting Hotel Arrivals and Occupancy

Abstract Forecasting hotel arrivals and occupancy is an important component in hotel revenue management systems. In this paper we propose time series approach for the arrivals and occupancy forecasting problem. In this approach we simulate the hotel reservations process forward in time. A key step for the faithful emulation of the reservations process is the accurate estimation of its parameters. We propose an approach for the estimation of these parameters from the historical data. We considered as a case study the problem of forecasting room demand for the Ganjali Plaza Hotel, Baku, Azerbaijan.The proposed model gives satisfactory result. 1. Introduction Forecasting in the hotel industry is very useful for estimating or calculating a variety of factors that can assist management in strategic decision making. Given the perishable nature of tourism services, there exists an important need to obtain accurate forecasts of future business activity (Archer, 1987; Athiyaman & Robertso n, 1992). Certainly, forecasting plays a crucial role in tourism planning both in the short and the long run. However, from a merely practical point of view, tourism industry is much more interested in getting good predictions in the short-term.Needs in the hospitality, transport and accommodation sectors have become more short-term in focus, and they can change rapidly with changing market demand. Therefore, increasing the accuracy of short-term forecasts is an essential requirement to improve the managerial, operational, and tactical decision-making process especially in the private sector. Because of the large number of existing hotels, any possible improvement in the methodology will amount to potentially very large overall savings. In recent years there has been rapid growth in the inflow of tourists to Azerbaijan.Declaring 2011 the Year of Tourism in the country has opened up new opportunities for further development in this field. In a modernizing Azerbaijan construction of h otel complexes, a high level of service has become widespread. The number of hotels in Azerbaijan is growing every year as the number of foreign tourists visiting the country. In 2002, the country had 70 hotels and hotel complexes, and visiting tourists were just over 800 thousand, now number over 500 hotels, and tourists – more than half a million. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism 40 new hotels is currently under construction in Azerbaijan.Today, the hotel fund of the republic consists of 31 thousand places against 9000 in 2002. As a result of the state program of tourism development up to 2016 capacity of hotels and recreation areas should be increased to 150 thousand. At the present time in Baku, mainly the business -and congress tourism is developed, which participants are only five-star hotels. Therefore in Baku there is a lack of hotels class â€Å"three or four† stars with reasonable prices and good service. Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Aze rbaijan is preparing a special offer for construction in the city hotels of different categories.There are currently functioning in Azerbaijan 499 hotels and hotel-type facilities. 312 of them operate on the basis of licenses issued by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and 187 – is illegal. Overall, about 80 hotels and facilities for recreation in the country have received the category of â€Å"star†. Today in Azerbaijan exist 17 five-star hotels, 13 of them – in Baku. 34 four-star hotels, 21 of which are located in Baku, the rest – in the regions. Of the 27 three-star hotel 18 is also located in Baku. In addition the republic has 6 two-star hotels.From five-star hotels the most popular are The Boutique Palace Hotel, Hilton Baku, Excelsior Hotel Baku, Grand Hotel Europe Baku, Palace Hotel Baku and others, among four-star hotels – The Ganjali Plaza Hotel, Riviera Hotel Baku, Austin Hotel Baku, Ramada Baku, Hyatt Regency Baku, etc. , three-star ho tels – Sea Port Hotel, Sun Rise Hotel Baku, Metropol the Hotel, Azcot Hotel, two-star hotels – Baku Palace Guesthouse, Baleva, Royal Guest House Baku, and finally one star hotel – Nur-2 hotel. So as we conduct research based on data about The Ganjali Plaza Hotel, should review it further.In 2008 industrial – commercial company â€Å"Ganjali † completed and put into operation the hotel â€Å"Ganjali Plaza. † The hotel is centrally located opposite the boulevard, within walking distance of the city's attractions and shops. The area of 4000 sqm hotel. An eight-story building with elevators there is. The hotel Ganjali Plaza handed comfortable accommodation to services of lodgers. This 4-star hotel is located in Baku city centre, a 10-minute walk from the Old Town district and the Heydar Aliyev Palace. The Ganjali Plaza Baku offers free Wi-Fi and elegant interiors.The classic-style rooms at the Ganjali Plaza Hotel feature stylish wooden furniture and floors. All rooms are air-conditioned and include satellite TV and a private bathroom with bath. Breakfast is provided each morning at the Ganjali Plaza. Guests are also welcome to relax in the bar with its rich wooden and glass furnishings, or in the fitness room. Reception at the Ganjali Plaza is open 24/7, and includes a tour desk and ticket service. Shuttle services and car rental are also available. We considered as a case study the problem of forecasting room demand for Ganjali Hotel, Baku, Azerbaijan. . Methodology In this topic the data set is discussed and the time series models used in this study are briefly explained. The data set Figure 1: The time series plot of the monthly guest arrivals data from January 2011 to December 2011. The time series plot from January 2011 to December 2011 consisting of a total of 12 monthly observations is shown in Figure 1. From the plot, it is clear that tourist arrivals has generally increased and decreased time by time and obviously it is not a stationary time series. There also appears to have some sort of seasonal pattern in it.There are also some unexpected dips and some events may have contributed to a drop in guest arrivals at these points of time. 3. 1. Time series In statistics, signal processing, econometrics and mathematical finance, a  time series  is a sequence of  data points, measured at successive times. Time series  analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting  is the use of a  model  to predict future values based on previously observed values.Time series are very frequently plotted via  line charts. In  evenly spaced  time series, the time intervals between data points are all equal, while in  unevenly spaced  time series the intervals differ. Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct from other common da ta analysis problems, in which there is no natural ordering of the observations. A time series model will generally reflect the fact that observations close together in time will be more closely related than observations further apart.In addition, time series models will often make use of the natural one-way ordering of time so that values for a given period will be expressed as deriving in some way from past values, rather than from future values. Time-Series Behaviors * Trend * Seasonality * Cycles * Irregular variations * Random variation * Trend Trend A long-term upward or downward movement in data. * Population shifts * Changing income Seasonality Short-term, fairly regular variations related to the calendar or time of day. Restaurants, service call centers, and theaters all experience seasonal demand CycleWavelike variations lasting more than one year. These are often related to a variety of economic, political, or even agricultural conditions Random Variation Residual variati on that remains after all other behaviors have been accounted for Irregular variation Due to unusual circumstances that do not reflect typical behavior * Labor strike * Weather event 3. 2. Time-Series Forecasting – Averaging These Techniques work best when a series tends to vary about an average. Averaging techniques smooth variations in the data They can handle step changes or gradual changes in the level of a series Techniques: Moving average * Weighted moving average * Exponential smoothing Later I will give a brief overview of techniques used in this study in the rich and rapidly growing field of time series modeling and analysis. 3. 3. Moving Average or Smoothing Techniques Inherent in the collection of data taken over time is some form of random variation. There exist methods for reducing of canceling the effect due to random variation. An often-used technique in industry is â€Å"smoothing†. This technique, when properly applied, reveals more clearly the underly ing trend, seasonal and cyclic components.There are two distinct groups of smoothing methods †¢Averaging Methods †¢Exponential Smoothing Methods Exponential Smoothing is a very popular scheme to produce a smoothed Time Series. Whereas in Single Moving Averages the past observations are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as the observation get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. In the case of moving averages, the weights assigned to the observations are the same and are equal to 1/N.In exponential smoothing, however, there are one or more smoothing parameters to be determined (or estimated) and these choices determine the weights assigned to the observations. 3. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel Case Study We applied the proposed forecasting model to the problem of forecasting the arrivals and the occupancy of the Ganjali Plaza Hotel, Baku, Azerbaijan, as a detailed case study. In collaboration with the hotel, we apply our proposed forecasting model to the hotel’s data. The Hotel Data We have applied the proposed forecasting model on this data of the Ganjali Plaza Hotel. 2011 months| Occupancy(Person)| jan| 137| feb| 108| ar| 186| apr| 117| may| 104| jun| 143| jul| 149| aug| 157| sep| 166| oct| 142| nov| 129| dec| 130| Table1. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel monthly guest arrivals data from January 2011 to December 2011. We have obtained a full set of data covering the period from jan-2011 until dec-2011. The set of the data include only the reservations. We forecast a month ahead using the last twelve months of the data. In next section we present the results of our study. 4. 4. Results Figure2. shows the moving average model for the case of one month forecasting. Figure2. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Moving Average method. 011 year| occupancy(person)| Moving Average| Standard deviation| jan| 137 | #N/A| #N/A| feb| 108| #N/A| #N/A| mar| 186| 143. 6666667| #N/A| apr| 117| 137| #N/A| may| 104| 135. 6666667| 32. 63377028| jun| 143| 121. 3333333| 24. 98147462| jul| 149| 132| 24. 22961151| aug| 157| 149. 6666667| 16. 45420131| sep| 166| 157. 3333333| 11. 8023852| oct| 142| 155| 9. 964752696| nov| 129| 145. 6666667| 13. 189502| dec| 130| 133. 6666667| 12. 3857744| jan| | 129. 5| 9. 852617625| Table2. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Moving Average method. Spreadsheet Showing Results Using n = 3.Figure3. represents the exponential smoothing model for the case of one month forecasting. Figure3. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Exponential Smoothing method. 2011 year| occupancy(person)| Exponential Smoothing| jan| 137| #N/A| #N/A| feb| 108| 137| #N/A| mar| 186| 125. 4| #N/A| apr| 117| 149. 64| #N/A| may| 104| 136. 584| 43. 12280758| jun| 143| 123. 5504| 43. 96758903| jul| 149| 131. 33024| 28. 89852128| aug| 157| 138. 3 98144| 24. 16763962| sep| 166| 145. 8388864| 18. 58795672| oct| 142| 153. 9033318| 18. 83896641| nov| 129| 149. 1419991| 17. 6449977| dec| 130| 141. 0851995| 17. 83124541| jan| | 136. 6511197| 14. 94736414| | | | | damping factor=0. 6| Table3. The Ganjali Plaza Hotel occupancy forecast for January 2012 using Exponential Smoothing method. Spreadsheet Showing Results Using w = 0. 4(damping factor=1-w=0. 6). 4. Conclusion In this paper we have proposed model for hotel arrivals and occupancy forecasting using time series method. We considered as a case study the Ganjali Plaza Hotel of Baku, Azerbaijan. The proposed forecasting model achieves good forecasting accuracy and beats other competing forecasting models.In other words, it estimates the whole picture of what will happen in the future for all processes, and in a probabilistic way. Table 1. and Figure1. show the different seasonal periods for the Ganjali Plaza Hotel, as determined by the managers. We used these data to determine th e forecast for January 2012 occupancy rate. For this purpose we implemented two techniques of time series methodology such as exponential smoothing and moving average method. References 1. Brockwell, P. J. and Davis, R. A. (2002), Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting, 2nd Edition, Springer-Verlag, New York. 2.Andrawis, R. , Atiya, A. F. , 2009. A new Bayesian formulation for Holt’s exponential smoothing. Journal of Forecasting 28, 218–234. 3. Andrew, W. , Cranage, D. , Lee, C. , 1990. Forecasting hotel occupancy rates with time series models: an empirical analysis. Hospitality Research Jour- nal 14, 173–181. 4. Chow, W. S. , Shyu, J. -C. , Wang, K. -C. , 1998. Developing a forecast sys- tem for hotel occupancy rate using integrated ARIMA models. Journal of International Hospitality, Leisure Tourism Management 1, 55–80. 5. Franses, P. H. , 1998. Time Series Models for Business and Economic Fore- casting.Cambridge University Press. 6. Gardner, E. S. , 2006. Exponential smoothing: The state of the art Part II. International Journal of Forecasting 22, 637–666. 7. Hyndman, R. J. , Koehler, A. B. , Ord, J. K. , 2008. Forecasting with Exponen- tial Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer Series in Statistics. 8. Kimes, S. E. , 1999. Group forecasting accuracy for hotels. Journal of the Operational Research Society 50, 1104–1110. 9. Weatherford, L. R. , Kimes, S. E. , January 2003. A comparison of forecasting methods for hotel revenue management. International Journal of Forecast- ing 99 (19), 401–415.

The Different Between Thai and American Wedding

The word marriage throughout the world has always been a symbol of unity between humans. Marriage represents in many ways the celebration of happiness for all people of different backgrounds, beliefs and cultures. When we look across the globe, we realize that in each place around the world marriages has its own traditional wedding. What are the weddings traditional in two different cultures? For example, Thai and American weddings have customs and traditions that are different in many ways. Initially, in traditional Thai weddings or marriages, an arrange marriage by a matchmaker or money dowries to future in-laws are considered the norm. In American weddings, two people fall in love and then a wedding is planned. In contrast, the Thai groomsmen’s families must give a dowry to the family of the bride. This arrangement is to guarantee a bride’s social and financial future will be protected and secured. Next, within American weddings religion has played the biggest role in how marriages are performed. For instance, Catholic wedding ceremonies are traditionally united in a church or place of worship, or may be married by an ordained priest outside of church. Many Thai people practice Buddhism, and in many Thai traditional wedding ceremonies, they are conducted in the presence of monk. Finally, wedding gifts are also common in both American and Thai weddings. The difference is in the kinds of gifts that are received. In the Thai custom, the bride and groomsman will typically present each other with a small gift and gifts that were given in cash by guests are placed in envelopes and then brought to a wishing well. In the American custom, wedding gifts are a way to help the couples set up their new home together. In conclusion, many people around the world have traditions really different from one culture to another. Nevertheless, marriages are considered a happy and most joyous occasion no matter where you are at in the world.

Comparing Romanticism And Transcendentalism - 902 Words

Transcendentalism which means beyond thinking is philosophy and literature, belief higher reality that found in sense experience, it has a big impact from Romanticism and has a lot of similarity with The Romanticism that is one of the dominant styles of literature. The Transcendentalists place an emphasis on imagination, insight, and inspiration mainly because of the Romanticism Emphasis on intuition, imagination, and feelings. Authors changed and improved it into the Transcendentalism. Transcendentalism focus on God with nature that the medium, push men to be more close to God, that is the relationship triangle. This perspective of view is also what Emerson talked about in â€Å"Nature†. The individualism plays an essential role of†¦show more content†¦Everything is an illusion, The children love the nature and they always will be happy, because when theyre happy, nature will happy with them, if they are not happy, but very sad, nature will take their sadness, and m ake them happy again. Kids can actually see the deeper nature and the sun will shine in their eyes and hearts because they love the nature. Nature Prove the way for them to have a closer relationship with God. Moreover, the inspiration that is the arousal of the mind to special unusual activity or creativity is also the inspiration for Transcendentalism. From the article â€Å"Crossing a bare common, in snow puddles, at twilight, under a clouded sky, without having in my thoughts any occurrence of special good fortune, Note I have enjoyed a perfect exhilaration.† Thereby, the author walked down the views, He could find out some more inspiration, and write the article about the normal object. The material of his writing comes from daily life, daily life comes from the normal view, the normal view comes from the nature that builds the bridge between, people and god. Ultimately, the natural spring Emerson with all the delight scene that incredible and then inspire more people. In Emerson’s words from Self-reliance, Is it necessary for Folks to leave the society what has all the foolish consistency? With the words come from the self-Reliance â€Å"With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do; imitation is suicide;Show MoreRelatedEmily Dickinson And Walt Whitman1719 Words   |  7 Pagesand their emotions into words that move the readers in some way. One of the most popular periods of writing would be the romanticism era. Some of the most well known authors in this time period were Emily Dickinson and Walt Whitman. The reason they are so popular from the Romanticism period is because they also incorporated their transcendental ideas into their work. Romanticism has been described as a Protestantism in the arts and letters, an ideological shift on the grand scale from conservativeRead MoreAmerican Romanticism : The Highest Expression Of Imagination1721 Words   |  7 PagesAmerican Romanticism is a journey away from the corruption of civilization and the limits of rational thoughts, and toward the integrity of nature and the freedom of imagination. In other words, it is a journey away from industrialism or rationalism, which is working hard and earning money. This movement, originally started in Europe and later reached in America. It can be best defined as a thought that values feeling and intuition over reason. Some of the characteristics include the importance ofRead MoreLiterary Romanticism : Literary Realism852 Words   |  4 PagesLiterary Romanticism in Contrast to Literary Realism Romanticism is a movement in the arts and literature that originated in the late 18th century, emphasizing inspiration, subjectivity, and the primacy of the individual. This particular movement focused on imagination and the interpretation of imagination by the individual. Romanticism primarily used symbolism to represent a much broader meaning than the object itself. In contrast, Realism attempts to describe life without idealization or romanticRead MoreEssay on Robert Frost: Troubled Romantic914 Words   |  4 Pages Frost: Troubled Romantic Many authors before Robert Frost wrote through the lens of romanticism. Romantic writers offered their readers an interpretation of nature and the natural order of things as a means to comfort them when faced with lifes difficulties. They proposed that nature could serve as a model, offer direction and allow humans to transcend their human condition. Another school of writers held that humans could not transcend nature or its order, they were the anti transcendentalistsRead More The Romanticism Period 1174 Words   |  5 Pagesbeen through with each period having specific beliefs. Romanticism is the time period that interests me the most; it was a time during the eighteenth century and focused on nature along with the individual’s expression of imagination and emotion. The Romanticism period started in 1789 and lasted till 1830. This time period was a major international movement, shaping modern views of art, literature, music, and other aspects in life. Romanticism was the â€Å"reaction against artistic styles of classicalRead MoreOn Wordsworth and Emerson ¡Ã‚ ¯S Conceptions of Nature3696 Words   |  15 PagesAbstract: By comparing and analyzing their two poems, I will try to define Wordsworth and Emerson ¡Ã‚ ¯s respective conception of nature. The reason why they formed such conceptions of nature is, to the former, lies in his passiveness; and to the latter, in German philosophy and bold individualism. Key Words: conception of nature £Ã‚ »NATURE £Ã‚ »philosophical conception of nature £Ã‚ »common conception of nature £Ã‚ »passiveness £Ã‚ »individualism Outline I. Introduction II. Wordsworth ¡Ã‚ ¯s conception of nature III.Read MoreThe Dream of the American Renaissance1016 Words   |  4 PagesThe Dream of the American Renaissance The American Renaissance is a tangent of the heavy Romanticism that influenced America prior, and expands upon the growing interest of the common man. The Period had writers of the Transcendentalist belief, who aspired to become larger than life itself; to ascend onto the level of a deity, and to break free from a dangerous world full of adversary. Their Dream of Ascendance, their goal of becoming independent, is the one thought that was fully realized throughoutRead MoreMetz Film Language a Semiotics of the Cinema PDF100902 Words   |  316 Pagestemporary aesthetics has turned its attention to the great categories, such as the graceful, the sublime, the elegiac, etc., which, in the domain of art, of human relations, and of the emotions, define the affective-aesthetic equivalent of Kantian transcendentalism, itself reinterpreted into phenomenological terms and stripped of any trace of idealism. The universal characteristics of the world as it appears, or of man as he apprehends the world—since one cannot break away from this constant shuttling implied